{KomentoDisable}Since my Appalachian Trail adventure of 2020 was cancelled because of the global COVID 19 pandemic, I started tracking the death rates of both Canada and the USA. I did this hoping to loosely forecast when and if I could get to the trailhead in Georgia on time to complete the AT before the snow starts to fall in Maine.

I selected Death Rate per capita as opposed to Infection Rates, suspecting that it was a more statistically accurate comparator metric.  It was theorized that infection rate statistics will be less accurate as a comparator because one country has a "for-profit" model of health care, and the other has a "public" health care model. Therefore it is further speculated that the testing and reporting rates will differ between the 2 countries because of this, thus death rate numbers would be a more accurate and reliable comparator metric.

I couldn't find anyone else comparing Canada and US Death Rates Per Capita. The US is often compared to other countries in the world, however never comprehensively to Canada. When it is done, it's measured by the total infection rate metric, and not per capita.  I find this oversite strange because Canada is the USA's closest comparator.... similar cultures and geographies, both wealthy democracies, plus the pandemic started essentially at the same time. (first confirmed cases in USA & Canada were Jan 20 & 27 respectively).  

Finally,  I won't speculate on the causation for the difference in Death Rates, I'll leave that for the smart people!  Stay apart and stay safe!

Charts created by Dudley with data from John Hopkins University

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UPDATE:

(May 17, 2020) - I no longer will be tracking the pandemic. Personally, there is no point anymore because I have decided to hike exclusively in Canada this year.  Frankly, the government decided for me! Travel to the USA from Canada is restricted to essential transport only, and that definitely does not include hiking! So my Appalachian plans and dreams are now official dead! 

So what next? As soon as I get the green light, I will start a YO-YO** of the complete Rideau Trail with my good friend Chris Abbott. I completed an end to end thru-hike of the trail in 2012, I called in OKTOBERQUEST. But to my knowledge, no one has ever completed a YO-YO** ... bring it on!

Stay tuned... 

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Alternative Sources:

• John Hopkins University
• Canadian Government
• Professor Mark Handley

** Yo-Yo-ing – The act of completing a thru-hike in one direction, then immediately turning around to begin another in the opposite direction.